Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 Odds: Trilogy Betting Preview and Prediction

The bantamweight trilogy is here, and the early Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 odds point to a clear but not overwhelming favorite. Petr Yan defends his title against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 333 on October 24 in Abu Dhabi, in the co-main event. After ten rounds of cage time, each man owns a win, so the market has a tricky job. Here is what the lines say and which UFC betting angles are worth studying.

What are the Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 odds

The opening numbers reported by Heavy.com listed Yan at -166 and Dvalishvili at +140. Gambling911 reported a similar split from BetOnline, with Yan at -170 and Dvalishvili at +150. Converted to implied probability, a price of -166 suggests roughly a 62 percent chance for Yan, while +140 implies about 42 percent for Merab. The two figures add up to more than 100 percent because the sportsbook builds in its margin.

Those are August opening lines, so the market may have shifted by the time you read this.

Why Yan Is the Favorite

Yan took the title back with a unanimous decision at UFC 323 in December 2025, avenging his first loss to Dvalishvili. Both Yan’s wins at Yas Island, against José Aldo and Cory Sandhagen, took place on Yas Island, where this fight is held, and he has leaned on that history in interviews, as reported by MMA Sucka. Joe Pyfer has also picked Yan to win, according to MMA Sucka, citing his respect for the champion. Expert opinions are not a guarantee, but they help explain why the price leans toward Yan.

Why Dvalishvili Is Live as an Underdog

Dvalishvili’s relentless pressure and wrestling troubled Yan before, and his cardio is one of the best in the division. At +140 or higher, a fighter who has already beaten the champion once can look like a fair underdog. Bettors who believe his pace will break Yan late may find the plus-money price attractive. For a full stylistic look, read our Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili 3 preview on OnlineUFC.

Best Betting Angles for the Trilogy

• Moneyline: Yan is the favorite, so the payout is smaller; Merab pays more but carries more risk.
• Fight goes the distance: Their first two fights both went the full five rounds, which makes this prop worth a look.
• Round betting: Early finishes look unlikely given their history, so avoid overpaying for them.
• Futures: A Yan win could open the door to a bout with Sean O’Malley, who has said he will wait for this result.

Cardio and Pace: The Hidden Factors

Five-round fights reward conditioning, and both men have proven they can last. That is why prices on a finish can be less attractive than they look. Pay attention to how each fighter performed in the late rounds of their last bout, because championship rounds are often where scorecards are decided. Small details such as takedown success and control time can swing a decision, so check those numbers before you commit.

How to Stake This Fight

A close fight is a good reason to stake small. Favorites at -166 require you to risk more to win less, so keep your unit size consistent and avoid stacking too many bets on one outcome. Compare lines across books, and remember that a parlay with the main event raises both the payout and the risk. If you need a refresher on reading odds, see our beginner’s guide to betting on the UFC, and for the rest of the card, check our UFC 333 best bets guide.

Final Prediction

Our lean is a close decision for Yan, but the price on Dvalishvili is never far from fair given their history. As always, bet only what you can afford to lose. Follow StakeUFC for line moves and the latest Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 odds before fight night.

18+ only. Gamble responsibly. Odds shown are opening lines and may have changed. Betting laws vary by location. This article is informational and is not financial advice.